Global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers next year are forecast to bounce back from a projected contraction of 18.6% to $87.4 billion in 2023 following the industry record of $107.4 billion in 2022, SEMI announced today in its Mid-Year Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast – OEM Perspective at SEMICON West 2023. The expected 2024 recovery – to $100 billion – will be driven by both the front-end and back-end segments.
“Despite current headwinds, the semiconductor equipment market is set to see a strong rebound in 2024 after an adjustment in 2023 following a historic multi-year run,” said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. “Projections for robust long-term growth driven by high-performance computing and ubiquitous connectivity remain intact.”
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Segment
Sales of wafer fab equipment, which includes wafer processing, fab facilities and mask/reticle equipment, are projected to decrease 18.8% to $76.4 billion in 2023 – more than the 16.8% decline predicted by SEMI in the 2022 year-end forecast. The wafer fab equipment segment is projected to account for the bulk of the recovery to $100 billion in 2024, generating $87.8 billion in sales, a 14.8% increase.
The 2022 decline in back-end equipment segment sales is expected to continue in 2023 due to challenging macroeconomic conditions and softening semiconductor demand. Semiconductor test equipment market sales are projected to contract by 15% to $6.4 billion in 2023, while assembly and packaging equipment sales are expected to drop by 20.5% to $4.6 billion in the same year. However, the test equipment and assembly and packaging equipment segments are expected to expand by 7.9% and 16.4%, respectively, in 2024.
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Application
Equipment sales for foundry and logic applications, accounting for more than half of total wafer fab equipment receipts, are expected to drop 6% year-over-year to $50.1 billion in 2023, reflecting softer end-market conditions. Demand for leading-edge foundry and logic in 2023 is expected to remain stable, with a slight softening balanced out by a rise in spending on mature nodes. Foundry and logic investments are projected to increase 3% in 2024.
DRAM equipment sales are expected to fall 28% to $8.8 billion in 2023 due to continuing weak consumer and enterprise demand for memory and storage but rebound 31% to $11.6 billion in 2024. NAND equipment sales are projected to decrease 51% to $8.4 billion in 2023 and surge 59% to $13.3 billion in 2024.
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Region
China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending in 2023 and 2024. While Taiwan is forecast to regain the lead in 2023, China is projected to return to the top position in 2024. Equipment spending for most regions tracked is expected to fall in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024.
The following results reflect market size by segment and application in billions of U.S. dollars:
Source: SEMI July 2023, Equipment Market Data Subscription
* Total equipment includes new wafer fab, test, and assembly and packaging. Total equipment excludes wafer manufacturing equipment. Totals may not add due to rounding.
The SEMI forecast is based on collective input from top equipment suppliers, the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) data collection program and the industry-recognized SEMI World Fab Forecast database.
The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports:
- Monthly SEMI North American Billings Report, an early perspective of equipment market trends
- Monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics(WWSEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment billings for seven regions and more than 22 market segments
Bi-annual Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast – OEM Perspective, an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market